Now that the Yankees season is officially over it seems like a good time to finally talk about A-Rod and what may happen with him this offseason.
Going into the post season I thought there was a decent chance that he would stay if he had a good post season and the Yankees played deep into the playoffs, making it at least to the ALCS or playing in the World series, but I think that goes out the window now. Fresh off another disappointing personal post season and another first round exit for the Yankees I don't think theres a chance in hell he'll play a game in a Yankees uniform next season.
Before this season I must admit I never bought into the players playing better in a contract year hype, but A-Rod definitely made me question that this season. A-Rod is coming off the best regular season in recent memory, he ranked at or near the top in nearly every offensive stat category there is, that hasn't been tainted with speculated steroid use, coming on the heels of a very disappointing '06 season, both offensively and defensively. His agent, Scott Boras, thinks that he can get A-Rod a 30+ mil per year contract and I wouldn't doubt it, especially with the monster season by A-Rod and the fact that Boras is the best agent in baseball.
There are going to be two factors with A-Rod that are going to disqualify about 90% of the teams in the league, however, and those are the fact that he will demand a 28-35 million a year contract, and the Boras factor. A lot of teams refuse to negotiate on big name free agents, or at all, with Boras because of the way he handles negotiations and there aren't many teams that can afford a salary like that. Most of the teams that can afford a contract like that will deal with Boras but its definitely something to be considered.
The teams that could afford him would be the Angels, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Giants, Cubs and the Tigers. However, the Mets are locked in at 3B and SS for the distant future with Wright and Reyes, the Tigers would be an enourmous long shot, but its not totally impossible, the Yankees have repeatedly stated that they won't get into a bidding war on A-Rod because they would lose out on the Rangers still paying a large portion of A-Rod's remaining contract, and the Orioles just don't seem likely.
That leaves the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants as the main contenders for A-Rod's services. The Red Sox may well have a hole at 3B if they decide to let Lowell go to free agency, and the Dodgers and Angels desperately need a power bat, the Angels have Vlad but an A-Rod acquisition would give him protection, but the Dodgers have no true immediate power threat in their lineup. The Cubs are set at 3B with Aramis Ramirez, but a return to SS would be a good option since Theriot is best suited as a back up. I think the Red Sox are going to resign Lowell so I don't see him going to the Red Sox, and Arte Moreno has repeatedly stated that they won't make a huge push for A-Rod this offseason because although they could afford it he would find it disrespectful to Vlad to pay A-Rod so much money. I don't see it happening with the Giants because he would be playing in the same park that the current all-time homerun leader played so long and A-Rod is going to make an eventual push at that record and I think he'll take that into consideration when making his decisions and discount them.
That would leave the Dodgers and Cubs as the two most likely suitors of A-Rod. Piniella is a father figure to A-Rod so I could see that as a real distinct possibility, and they have the cash to do it, however, I think he ends up a Dodger. The Cubs do have the cash to make a push for him, but I don't think they have enough to compete with the Dodgers. The Dodgers have both the need at 3B and the need for a true power bat along with the cash to make a huge push for A-Rod. A-Rod would give the Dodgers a ton of revenue and reclaim some fans from the Angels and would make them an almost immediate favorite for the NL Pennant and NL West next year and immediately re-energize the lineup.
Look for A-Rod to be playing '08 in a Dodgers uniform in Chavez Ravine.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Tigers exercise option on Pudge
This was a pretty easy decision.
For a time there were reports circulating that the Tigers were not going to pick up Pudge's option and instead opt to buy him out, that seemed highly unlikely though.
Pudge would've been the best FA catcher on the market this offseason by a wide margin and the Tigers have no decent viable in house options so this was a slam dunk move. Hes done wonders with guys like Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson, and just about anyone else thats stepped on the mound for the Tigers since hes been there and has seemed to be a clubhouse leader so letting go of him would've cost the Tigers a lot more than a few million dollars in buyout.
Now it appears the best catchers on the market will be Yorvit Torrealba, Ramon Castro, and Paul Lo Duca.
For a time there were reports circulating that the Tigers were not going to pick up Pudge's option and instead opt to buy him out, that seemed highly unlikely though.
Pudge would've been the best FA catcher on the market this offseason by a wide margin and the Tigers have no decent viable in house options so this was a slam dunk move. Hes done wonders with guys like Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson, and just about anyone else thats stepped on the mound for the Tigers since hes been there and has seemed to be a clubhouse leader so letting go of him would've cost the Tigers a lot more than a few million dollars in buyout.
Now it appears the best catchers on the market will be Yorvit Torrealba, Ramon Castro, and Paul Lo Duca.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Glavine Update
I detailed a few posts below that Glavine has declined his player option and has decided to test free agency or retire. I said that I thought he would return and latch on with the Braves to contend, or the Nationals to teach.
Well, we have a little update on that. It is being reported by some sources that he would take less money to return home and pitch with the Braves. Glavine at a discount is still going to cost a pretty penny, and the Braves have more pressing needs in CF and trying to find a way to fit Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and Yunel Escobar in the same lineup. Of course, a scenario that could work would be trading Renteria, he would be in high demand with the poor SS market this offseason, and sticking the younger, cheaper Yunel at SS and Johnson at 2B, which would free up the cash for them to go after Glavine and a second tier CF like Mike Cameron.
Well, we have a little update on that. It is being reported by some sources that he would take less money to return home and pitch with the Braves. Glavine at a discount is still going to cost a pretty penny, and the Braves have more pressing needs in CF and trying to find a way to fit Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and Yunel Escobar in the same lineup. Of course, a scenario that could work would be trading Renteria, he would be in high demand with the poor SS market this offseason, and sticking the younger, cheaper Yunel at SS and Johnson at 2B, which would free up the cash for them to go after Glavine and a second tier CF like Mike Cameron.
Friday, October 5, 2007
NL Playoff picks
I know these are already underway but I'm doing it anyways.
Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies in 4
Two very hot teams going in. Both have very good offensive clubs and hitter friendly parks, the difference is that the Rockies pitching is a lot better. After Hamels the Phillies don't have much in the rotation, and even less in the 'pen, the Rockies are very solid in both those departments, which will put them over the top in this series.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks - D'Backs in 5
The Diamondbacks are an intriguing team to say the least. They outperformed their Pythagorean record by several games and were outscored by there opponents, not something that normally leads to the best record in the NL. That being said, I still think they're better than the Cubs.
Rockies vs. D'backs - Rockies in 7
This is more a hope than anything else. The Rockies are incredibly hot and are bound to cool off at some point, I just don't think its here. They are equal, for the most part, in the rotation and bullpen. The Rockies had the best defense in baseball, while Arizona had the 21st, and the Rockies were 5th in runs in MLB, whereas Arizona finished 26th. The Rockies will be the hotter team going in and the better, which is why I think they will advance to the WS against my AL pick, the Red Sox.
Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies in 4
Two very hot teams going in. Both have very good offensive clubs and hitter friendly parks, the difference is that the Rockies pitching is a lot better. After Hamels the Phillies don't have much in the rotation, and even less in the 'pen, the Rockies are very solid in both those departments, which will put them over the top in this series.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks - D'Backs in 5
The Diamondbacks are an intriguing team to say the least. They outperformed their Pythagorean record by several games and were outscored by there opponents, not something that normally leads to the best record in the NL. That being said, I still think they're better than the Cubs.
Rockies vs. D'backs - Rockies in 7
This is more a hope than anything else. The Rockies are incredibly hot and are bound to cool off at some point, I just don't think its here. They are equal, for the most part, in the rotation and bullpen. The Rockies had the best defense in baseball, while Arizona had the 21st, and the Rockies were 5th in runs in MLB, whereas Arizona finished 26th. The Rockies will be the hotter team going in and the better, which is why I think they will advance to the WS against my AL pick, the Red Sox.
Glavine decline player option
Just so whoever happens to read this knows, I'm not doing those playoff things for the NL, I was going to but the playoffs have started and I don't see the point of it at this point, but I will do my NL picks later.
Anyways, Tom Glavine has decided to decline his 13 million player option and go for Free Agency. I find this kind of puzzling for a few reasons, one being that theres no way he'll get more than 13 mil on the open market no matter how good his agent is, second being that this could either mean the end of his career or a return to Atlanta. A team like the Nationals or D'Rays or Royals could also look to sign him to mentor their young starters and teach them the ropes and teach them how to pitch without a 95 MPH heater.
The Mets are hoping they can resign him on the open market, but it is clear, to me at least and probably them, that if he wanted to stay in New York that he would've simply exercised his option, which means that the chances of him returning to pitch as a Met are very slim.
I would say that there is also a fair chance that he retires and goes into the Hall of Fame in five years.
My feeling, however, is that he will return to wash the taste of the Mets collapse out of his mouth with a team near the east coast. I'd say his most likely destinations, should be return, would be Atlanta, Washington, Tampa Bay with the Mets being a long shot. He would serve as a mentor in Washington or Tampa, with possibly having a chance to contend in Tampa depending on how things go, but in Atlanta he would have a chance to win another ring.
No matter what he does he is a great pitcher and a surefire, first ballot Hall of Famer.
Anyways, Tom Glavine has decided to decline his 13 million player option and go for Free Agency. I find this kind of puzzling for a few reasons, one being that theres no way he'll get more than 13 mil on the open market no matter how good his agent is, second being that this could either mean the end of his career or a return to Atlanta. A team like the Nationals or D'Rays or Royals could also look to sign him to mentor their young starters and teach them the ropes and teach them how to pitch without a 95 MPH heater.
The Mets are hoping they can resign him on the open market, but it is clear, to me at least and probably them, that if he wanted to stay in New York that he would've simply exercised his option, which means that the chances of him returning to pitch as a Met are very slim.
I would say that there is also a fair chance that he retires and goes into the Hall of Fame in five years.
My feeling, however, is that he will return to wash the taste of the Mets collapse out of his mouth with a team near the east coast. I'd say his most likely destinations, should be return, would be Atlanta, Washington, Tampa Bay with the Mets being a long shot. He would serve as a mentor in Washington or Tampa, with possibly having a chance to contend in Tampa depending on how things go, but in Atlanta he would have a chance to win another ring.
No matter what he does he is a great pitcher and a surefire, first ballot Hall of Famer.
Monday, October 1, 2007
AL Playoff picks
ALDS Series 1:
Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox in 4
Red Sox will have Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling going, which isn't too much worse than what LA will be throwing out there and the Red Sox have a huge edge in offense which I think will put them over the top.
ALDS Series 2:
Indians vs. Yankees - Indians in 3
Indians have the far better pitching and the offense isn't too much worse than that of the Yankees. Pitching wins in the playoffs and the Indians are far better in that regard so thats what puts them over the top for me.
ALCS:
Red Sox vs. Indians - Red Sox in 6
This is really a tossup as both of these teams are nearly identical in almost all regards, my personal bias pushes me towards the Red Sox because of that. There will definitely be some great pitching duels, and probably some slugfests too, its just too close to call so I'm going with who I HOPE will win.
NL Playoff team breakdowns and predictions next.
Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox in 4
Red Sox will have Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling going, which isn't too much worse than what LA will be throwing out there and the Red Sox have a huge edge in offense which I think will put them over the top.
ALDS Series 2:
Indians vs. Yankees - Indians in 3
Indians have the far better pitching and the offense isn't too much worse than that of the Yankees. Pitching wins in the playoffs and the Indians are far better in that regard so thats what puts them over the top for me.
ALCS:
Red Sox vs. Indians - Red Sox in 6
This is really a tossup as both of these teams are nearly identical in almost all regards, my personal bias pushes me towards the Red Sox because of that. There will definitely be some great pitching duels, and probably some slugfests too, its just too close to call so I'm going with who I HOPE will win.
NL Playoff team breakdowns and predictions next.
No Clear Team to Beat in AL - Yankees
Yankees:
Strengths - Offense, closer and setup, front end of rotation, defense
Weaknesses - Middle relief, starting pitching
Neutral - Bench
Offense - This is clearly the defining attribute of this Yankee team. There isn't even really a bad thing to say about it. They have the likely unanimous AL MVP in Alex Rodriguez and his inhuman numbers, Jeter has had another good season at the plate, Giambi is having another good season, Cano is good as always, Damon is having another solid season, Posada is having one of the best seasons of his career, and Abreu has come on well since starting very slowly. There is virtually no hole in the lineup. The one arguement you could make against the offense is that they don't have a lot of speed, but Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, and Melky are all capable of stealing a base if they need to. They grind out at bats, they don't strike out a whole lot, they hit for good average and power and have decent enough speed to get by. This is definitely what will carry them in the postseason.
Defense - They finished 7th in baseball this season in fielding percentage. A-Rod has apparently been cleansed of the defensive woes that plagued him last season and all their OF's have average or above range. Jeter is a solid shortstop, though he is vastly overrated defensively by a lot of people but I'm not getting into that, and Cano is also very solid. Posada calls a good game and is capable of throwing out most baserunners. Depending on who they DH 1B could be a problem if they decide to run Giambi out there night in and night out it could cost them some runs, but they have the offense to make up for it. Same as the others, this shouldn't hurt them a whole lot.
Pitching - This is very clearly the downfall of this Yankee team. After Pettitte and Wang they have basically no rotation. Clemens is unreliable at his age and its all rookies after that and starting rookies in playoff games, especially on the road in a place like Boston, Cleveland or LA, the crowd and pressure will probably really get to them and affect them a lot. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera are a great 1-2 punch at the back of the BP, but the problem is getting to them with a lead. Farnsworth has been completely awful this season and has proven he isn't suited to anything better than mop up duty in a place like New York, Vizcaino has been as unreliable as Farnsworth. The only other reliever that you may be able to count on is Bruney, especially after they traded Proctor away at the deadline. This is definitely going to be what will hold the Yankees back in the playoffs. Pitching wins in the playoffs and they don't have a lot of it, I think this will definitely cost them a few wins, and probably winning or losing a series.
Overall - The offense is capable of putting 7 runs on the board on any given night, but the pitching is so bad that they could just as easily give up 10. I don't think they will make it very far because of how poor the pitching is.
AL playoff picks then I'll do the same thing for the NL, after this Colorado game so I know who to do it on.
Strengths - Offense, closer and setup, front end of rotation, defense
Weaknesses - Middle relief, starting pitching
Neutral - Bench
Offense - This is clearly the defining attribute of this Yankee team. There isn't even really a bad thing to say about it. They have the likely unanimous AL MVP in Alex Rodriguez and his inhuman numbers, Jeter has had another good season at the plate, Giambi is having another good season, Cano is good as always, Damon is having another solid season, Posada is having one of the best seasons of his career, and Abreu has come on well since starting very slowly. There is virtually no hole in the lineup. The one arguement you could make against the offense is that they don't have a lot of speed, but Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, and Melky are all capable of stealing a base if they need to. They grind out at bats, they don't strike out a whole lot, they hit for good average and power and have decent enough speed to get by. This is definitely what will carry them in the postseason.
Defense - They finished 7th in baseball this season in fielding percentage. A-Rod has apparently been cleansed of the defensive woes that plagued him last season and all their OF's have average or above range. Jeter is a solid shortstop, though he is vastly overrated defensively by a lot of people but I'm not getting into that, and Cano is also very solid. Posada calls a good game and is capable of throwing out most baserunners. Depending on who they DH 1B could be a problem if they decide to run Giambi out there night in and night out it could cost them some runs, but they have the offense to make up for it. Same as the others, this shouldn't hurt them a whole lot.
Pitching - This is very clearly the downfall of this Yankee team. After Pettitte and Wang they have basically no rotation. Clemens is unreliable at his age and its all rookies after that and starting rookies in playoff games, especially on the road in a place like Boston, Cleveland or LA, the crowd and pressure will probably really get to them and affect them a lot. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera are a great 1-2 punch at the back of the BP, but the problem is getting to them with a lead. Farnsworth has been completely awful this season and has proven he isn't suited to anything better than mop up duty in a place like New York, Vizcaino has been as unreliable as Farnsworth. The only other reliever that you may be able to count on is Bruney, especially after they traded Proctor away at the deadline. This is definitely going to be what will hold the Yankees back in the playoffs. Pitching wins in the playoffs and they don't have a lot of it, I think this will definitely cost them a few wins, and probably winning or losing a series.
Overall - The offense is capable of putting 7 runs on the board on any given night, but the pitching is so bad that they could just as easily give up 10. I don't think they will make it very far because of how poor the pitching is.
AL playoff picks then I'll do the same thing for the NL, after this Colorado game so I know who to do it on.
No Clear Team to Beat in AL - Angels
Angels:
Strengths - Speed, starting pitching, closer, contact hitting
Weaknesses - The lack of a power bat behind Vlad, lack of BB's
Neutral - Defense, middle relief and setup
Offense - The Angels have been a very good offensive club this year. They were in the top 10 in the AL in runs (822), batting average (.284), on base percent (.354), and stolen bases (139). However, they finished in the bottom half of the league in slugging (.417), walks (507). They are ripe with good contact hitters like Vlad, Figgins, Cabrera, Kendrick, Izturis, Kotchman. However, they have virtually no power threat after Vlad, the next closest player to Vlad's .547 slugging percent was Garrett Anderson's .492, but he still isn't the type of power threat they need and isn't the type of guy that scares pitchers to a great degree anymore, and no other regular posted a slugging percent higher than .467. The lack of power could definitely hurt them in a close game, but the batting average and speed partially make up for it, since you can turn a single into a double with a stolen base. Overall, I think the offense may be a weak spot for them in the playoffs since they will be drawing very, very good pitchers each time out and they don't have anyone besides Vlad that you can expect to tie or win a game with one swing of the bat.
Defense - The Angels didn't play their characteristically good defense this season, finishing 19th in the MLB in fielding percent, they still have very some good defensive players though, not the least of which are Casey Kotchman, Gary Matthews Jr., Orlando Cabrera, and Reggie Willits. Vlad isn't a great outfielder anymore, he had nine errors in the OF this year which I think is simply unacceptable from an outfielder, hes lost a step of his range, he doesn't have the arm he used to, though it is still quite good and better than most, and isn't really the overall fielder he once was, but I wouldn't expect him to hurt them much defensively since I think he will DH quite a bit this post season, with Rivera, Willits, Anderson, and Matthews all getting time in the OF. The defense may hurt them this postseason because a large amount of the errors came at two of the most important defensive positions on the field, shortstop and third base, but they have the pitching to make up for most of it I think, I wouldn't expect it to hurt them more than any other team, I wouldn't be surprised if it did though.
Pitching - This should definitely not hurt the Angels this postseason. They have two pitchers that have had Cy Young type years in Lackey and Escobar, you could even throw K-Rod in there if you wanted, along with a solid season from Weaver and a good season out of the bullpen from Justin Speier. However, they do have a few flaws, besides K-Rod and Speier the bullpen has not been as reliable this season, and the Santana and Colon both struggled this season starting which leaves them with a slight hole there. Sheilds should be able to pick it up in the post season though. How good the Angels do these playoffs will likely depend on how well they pitch, which should be very well.
Overall - The offense is the only thing I can see hurting the Angels a lot, due to the reasons I detailed before, and the pitching will carry them as far as they go. They do not have a good history against Boston in the playoffs and Boston has a much better offense and roughly equally as good pitching. I don't think they beat the Red Sox, but they will definitely give them a run for there money.
Yankees up next.
Strengths - Speed, starting pitching, closer, contact hitting
Weaknesses - The lack of a power bat behind Vlad, lack of BB's
Neutral - Defense, middle relief and setup
Offense - The Angels have been a very good offensive club this year. They were in the top 10 in the AL in runs (822), batting average (.284), on base percent (.354), and stolen bases (139). However, they finished in the bottom half of the league in slugging (.417), walks (507). They are ripe with good contact hitters like Vlad, Figgins, Cabrera, Kendrick, Izturis, Kotchman. However, they have virtually no power threat after Vlad, the next closest player to Vlad's .547 slugging percent was Garrett Anderson's .492, but he still isn't the type of power threat they need and isn't the type of guy that scares pitchers to a great degree anymore, and no other regular posted a slugging percent higher than .467. The lack of power could definitely hurt them in a close game, but the batting average and speed partially make up for it, since you can turn a single into a double with a stolen base. Overall, I think the offense may be a weak spot for them in the playoffs since they will be drawing very, very good pitchers each time out and they don't have anyone besides Vlad that you can expect to tie or win a game with one swing of the bat.
Defense - The Angels didn't play their characteristically good defense this season, finishing 19th in the MLB in fielding percent, they still have very some good defensive players though, not the least of which are Casey Kotchman, Gary Matthews Jr., Orlando Cabrera, and Reggie Willits. Vlad isn't a great outfielder anymore, he had nine errors in the OF this year which I think is simply unacceptable from an outfielder, hes lost a step of his range, he doesn't have the arm he used to, though it is still quite good and better than most, and isn't really the overall fielder he once was, but I wouldn't expect him to hurt them much defensively since I think he will DH quite a bit this post season, with Rivera, Willits, Anderson, and Matthews all getting time in the OF. The defense may hurt them this postseason because a large amount of the errors came at two of the most important defensive positions on the field, shortstop and third base, but they have the pitching to make up for most of it I think, I wouldn't expect it to hurt them more than any other team, I wouldn't be surprised if it did though.
Pitching - This should definitely not hurt the Angels this postseason. They have two pitchers that have had Cy Young type years in Lackey and Escobar, you could even throw K-Rod in there if you wanted, along with a solid season from Weaver and a good season out of the bullpen from Justin Speier. However, they do have a few flaws, besides K-Rod and Speier the bullpen has not been as reliable this season, and the Santana and Colon both struggled this season starting which leaves them with a slight hole there. Sheilds should be able to pick it up in the post season though. How good the Angels do these playoffs will likely depend on how well they pitch, which should be very well.
Overall - The offense is the only thing I can see hurting the Angels a lot, due to the reasons I detailed before, and the pitching will carry them as far as they go. They do not have a good history against Boston in the playoffs and Boston has a much better offense and roughly equally as good pitching. I don't think they beat the Red Sox, but they will definitely give them a run for there money.
Yankees up next.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
No Clear Team to Beat in AL - Indians
Indians:
Strengths - Lineup, front end of the rotation, defense, set up
Weaknesses - Shaky bullpen, strikeout a lot
Neutral - Middle relief, closer
Offense - The Indians are a very strong offensive team, ranking 9th in MLB in runs scored this season. They hit for a solid, though not great, average, they hit for excellent power and are capable of stealing a base when they need to. Victor Martinez, Hafner, and Grady are the anchors of the lineup. Victor had one of the best seasons of his career this year, and while Hafner and Grady both had down years they should still be feared. Garko has also had a very strong year, the only real holes on the line up are Josh Barfield, but he has been supplanted by Asdrubal Cabrera, and the platoon of Trot Nixon, Jason Michaels, and Franklin Guttierez. The offense certainly shouldn't hurt them this off season. Their only real source of speed is Sizemore, but I don't think that should hurt them too much.
Defense - The Indians are a very solid defensive team. They have a few Gold Glove caliber players, including Grady Sizemore and Ryan Garko, along with getting solid defense from players like Blake, Barfield, and Peralta. I don't think will help, nor hurt the Indians a whole lot this postseason.
Pitching - The Indians have two 19 game winners in Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, which says a lot in itself, but the pitching is slightly questionable after that. Cliff Lee has been terrible this season, after winning 18 games not too long ago, Paul Byrd is a cagey veteran and is battle tested in the playoffs, but he is getting up there in age and has almost nothing left on his fastball. Westbrook is probably the one other guy I would rely on, he is still pretty young and doesn't have to rely solely on his fastball or sinker. The bullpen is a huge weak spot though. Borowski has been a disaster this season, with an ERA over 5.00 as a closer and allowing over half as many runs as Carmona in over 100 less IP, and is probably on a very short leash in the playoffs. Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez have both been very good this season, both with sub 2.00 ERA's, and if Borowski blows a save or costs the Indians a game once they may get the call to close. They are the only two reliable bullpen arms, however, as almost all the others post ERA's over 4.00.
Overall - The Indians area very well rounded team and may very well advance to the WS. Their only glaring hole is at closer, which could be easily fixed by putting Betancourt or Perez at closer, otherwise they are set without any big holes. I'm expecting them to advance past the Yankees to the ALCS (hopefully) against the Red Sox.
Angels next.
Strengths - Lineup, front end of the rotation, defense, set up
Weaknesses - Shaky bullpen, strikeout a lot
Neutral - Middle relief, closer
Offense - The Indians are a very strong offensive team, ranking 9th in MLB in runs scored this season. They hit for a solid, though not great, average, they hit for excellent power and are capable of stealing a base when they need to. Victor Martinez, Hafner, and Grady are the anchors of the lineup. Victor had one of the best seasons of his career this year, and while Hafner and Grady both had down years they should still be feared. Garko has also had a very strong year, the only real holes on the line up are Josh Barfield, but he has been supplanted by Asdrubal Cabrera, and the platoon of Trot Nixon, Jason Michaels, and Franklin Guttierez. The offense certainly shouldn't hurt them this off season. Their only real source of speed is Sizemore, but I don't think that should hurt them too much.
Defense - The Indians are a very solid defensive team. They have a few Gold Glove caliber players, including Grady Sizemore and Ryan Garko, along with getting solid defense from players like Blake, Barfield, and Peralta. I don't think will help, nor hurt the Indians a whole lot this postseason.
Pitching - The Indians have two 19 game winners in Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, which says a lot in itself, but the pitching is slightly questionable after that. Cliff Lee has been terrible this season, after winning 18 games not too long ago, Paul Byrd is a cagey veteran and is battle tested in the playoffs, but he is getting up there in age and has almost nothing left on his fastball. Westbrook is probably the one other guy I would rely on, he is still pretty young and doesn't have to rely solely on his fastball or sinker. The bullpen is a huge weak spot though. Borowski has been a disaster this season, with an ERA over 5.00 as a closer and allowing over half as many runs as Carmona in over 100 less IP, and is probably on a very short leash in the playoffs. Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez have both been very good this season, both with sub 2.00 ERA's, and if Borowski blows a save or costs the Indians a game once they may get the call to close. They are the only two reliable bullpen arms, however, as almost all the others post ERA's over 4.00.
Overall - The Indians area very well rounded team and may very well advance to the WS. Their only glaring hole is at closer, which could be easily fixed by putting Betancourt or Perez at closer, otherwise they are set without any big holes. I'm expecting them to advance past the Yankees to the ALCS (hopefully) against the Red Sox.
Angels next.
No Clear Team to Beat in AL - Red Sox
This year the AL playoff pennant is wide open, there is no clear cut "team to beat". Every team has their strengths that could win it for them, and their flaws that could cost them everything, with the Red Sox its injuries and the bullpen tailing off, the Indians have an unreliable closer in Joe Borowski, the Angels don't have a real power threat behind Guerrero and Sheilds hasn't been his normal self, and the Yankees don't have the starting pitching to win in a short series. I'm going to take a little bit more in depth look and analyze each AL playoff teams strengths and weaknesses.
Red Sox:
Strengths - Lineup (for the most part), starting pitching, closer and setup, defense
Weaknesses - Injuries, middle relief, lack of good bench bat
Neutral - Bench
Offense - When healthy, the offense is very strong from top to bottom and is very balanced with a good mix of speed, power, and average. Lowell and Pedroia have had amazing years, with strong years from Ortiz, Crisp, and Youk and a good month of filling in from Ellsbury. However, Drew has struggle badly this year, though he has been very, very good this month, with a very mediocre line of .270/.373/.423 with only 11 home runs. They have also been hit with injuries to important hitters like Youk and Manny, Manny has come back pretty strong, but Youk still hasn't played consistently since the injury happened. In the end, I don't think the offense will be a problem in the postseason, especially with Drew and Ortiz having good final months to the season and Lowell having the best year of his career, this will be a strong suit for them during the postseason.
Defense - The Red Sox have been extremely good defensively this year. Pedroia and Crisp are both Gold Glove deserving, along with past winner Mike Lowell manning the hot corner and Youkilis still hasn't made an error this season at 1B. Crisp has caught everything hit near him this season and Drew is an above average fielder with a hose in right, Manny plays the Monster well but can be lackadaisical at time and doesn't play very good defense outside of Fenway. Lugo has had an unusually good year defensively, by his standard, and Pedroia has established himself as one of the best defensive second basemen in the AL. Lowell hasn't been himself defensively this year, but there is no reason to think that hes gonna suddenly turn into Steve Sax, and as I said before Youk still has yet to make an error this season. 'Tek will call a great game as always and throws out a decent percent of base runners. There are also good replacements on the bench, with Ellsbury, Cora, and Kielty all being strong defenders. The defense shouldn't cost them too much, but we all remember Buckner too.
Pitching - The starting pitching has been very good all season with Cy Young contender Josh Beckett, playoff tested Curt Schilling, knuckle baller Tim Wakefield, lefty Jon Lester and Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka all having strong seasons. The playoff rotation in the first round is almost certainly going to be Josh Beckett going games 1 and 4 or 5, Schilling going games 2 and 4 or 5, and Dice-K going game 3, which bodes well for the Red Sox. The bullpen was very good early in the season, with great seasons from Papelbon and Okajima along with the emergence of Delcarmen, but it started to fall apart once Gagne got here and suddenly lost his ability to get guys out. Gagne has been better lately, but Okajima is still shutdown with a deadarm and wasn't doing well even before it was thought he might have an injury. I would expect Okajima to return and be good, though probably not the sub 1.00 ERA guy, Papelbon should continue to be great, though it will be interesting to see how Delcarmen reacts in the playoffs and how Lester performs out of the bullpen. I wouldn't expect the Red Sox to blow any huge leads this postseason and that the bullpen will be very, very solid.
Overall - I think the Red Sox are one of the stronger teams in the AL playoffs this year and if there is a team to beat they definitely may be it. Expect them to put up a strong fight all postseason and probably advance very deep into the playoffs.
Next up will be the Indians later tonight or tomorrow.
Red Sox:
Strengths - Lineup (for the most part), starting pitching, closer and setup, defense
Weaknesses - Injuries, middle relief, lack of good bench bat
Neutral - Bench
Offense - When healthy, the offense is very strong from top to bottom and is very balanced with a good mix of speed, power, and average. Lowell and Pedroia have had amazing years, with strong years from Ortiz, Crisp, and Youk and a good month of filling in from Ellsbury. However, Drew has struggle badly this year, though he has been very, very good this month, with a very mediocre line of .270/.373/.423 with only 11 home runs. They have also been hit with injuries to important hitters like Youk and Manny, Manny has come back pretty strong, but Youk still hasn't played consistently since the injury happened. In the end, I don't think the offense will be a problem in the postseason, especially with Drew and Ortiz having good final months to the season and Lowell having the best year of his career, this will be a strong suit for them during the postseason.
Defense - The Red Sox have been extremely good defensively this year. Pedroia and Crisp are both Gold Glove deserving, along with past winner Mike Lowell manning the hot corner and Youkilis still hasn't made an error this season at 1B. Crisp has caught everything hit near him this season and Drew is an above average fielder with a hose in right, Manny plays the Monster well but can be lackadaisical at time and doesn't play very good defense outside of Fenway. Lugo has had an unusually good year defensively, by his standard, and Pedroia has established himself as one of the best defensive second basemen in the AL. Lowell hasn't been himself defensively this year, but there is no reason to think that hes gonna suddenly turn into Steve Sax, and as I said before Youk still has yet to make an error this season. 'Tek will call a great game as always and throws out a decent percent of base runners. There are also good replacements on the bench, with Ellsbury, Cora, and Kielty all being strong defenders. The defense shouldn't cost them too much, but we all remember Buckner too.
Pitching - The starting pitching has been very good all season with Cy Young contender Josh Beckett, playoff tested Curt Schilling, knuckle baller Tim Wakefield, lefty Jon Lester and Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka all having strong seasons. The playoff rotation in the first round is almost certainly going to be Josh Beckett going games 1 and 4 or 5, Schilling going games 2 and 4 or 5, and Dice-K going game 3, which bodes well for the Red Sox. The bullpen was very good early in the season, with great seasons from Papelbon and Okajima along with the emergence of Delcarmen, but it started to fall apart once Gagne got here and suddenly lost his ability to get guys out. Gagne has been better lately, but Okajima is still shutdown with a deadarm and wasn't doing well even before it was thought he might have an injury. I would expect Okajima to return and be good, though probably not the sub 1.00 ERA guy, Papelbon should continue to be great, though it will be interesting to see how Delcarmen reacts in the playoffs and how Lester performs out of the bullpen. I wouldn't expect the Red Sox to blow any huge leads this postseason and that the bullpen will be very, very solid.
Overall - I think the Red Sox are one of the stronger teams in the AL playoffs this year and if there is a team to beat they definitely may be it. Expect them to put up a strong fight all postseason and probably advance very deep into the playoffs.
Next up will be the Indians later tonight or tomorrow.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Red Sox clinch AL East!
The Red Sox win over Minnesota, coupled with the Yankees meltdown in Baltimore,
clinched the Red Sox their first Eastern Division title in 12 years.
The Red Sox game was fairly close throughout most of the game, the Red Sox never surrendered the lead after gaining it however. They scored early, with two in the first and one in the third, with one more each coming in the 6th and 8th innings, with a homer coming off the bat of Ortiz. The Twins got their only two runs in the 7th inning off a homer from Morneau and an RBI from Brian Buscher.
The Yankee game was almost the complete opposite however. The Yankees were up 7-2 going into the bottom of the 4th inning, when Baltimore rallied to score four runs to make it 7-6 Yankees. The Yankees would score one each in the 6th and 8th. But then it all came unraveled in the bottom of the 9th; with the Yankees leading 9-6 the Orioles scored three runs off of Mariano Rivera to tie it at 9 a piece and then won it with a walk off squeeze with the bases loaded my Melvin Mora in the 10th.
With the way these two games all unfolded, in favor of the Red Sox, it could be a good omen and a sign of things to come for the Red Sox.
clinched the Red Sox their first Eastern Division title in 12 years.
The Red Sox game was fairly close throughout most of the game, the Red Sox never surrendered the lead after gaining it however. They scored early, with two in the first and one in the third, with one more each coming in the 6th and 8th innings, with a homer coming off the bat of Ortiz. The Twins got their only two runs in the 7th inning off a homer from Morneau and an RBI from Brian Buscher.
The Yankee game was almost the complete opposite however. The Yankees were up 7-2 going into the bottom of the 4th inning, when Baltimore rallied to score four runs to make it 7-6 Yankees. The Yankees would score one each in the 6th and 8th. But then it all came unraveled in the bottom of the 9th; with the Yankees leading 9-6 the Orioles scored three runs off of Mariano Rivera to tie it at 9 a piece and then won it with a walk off squeeze with the bases loaded my Melvin Mora in the 10th.
With the way these two games all unfolded, in favor of the Red Sox, it could be a good omen and a sign of things to come for the Red Sox.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Great end of season races
This last weekend of baseball could prove to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. In the AL you have the Red Sox and Indians battling for the best record and the right to choose their first round playoff format and first round opponent. In the NL you have approximately seven teams, the Phillies, Mets, Rockies, Padres, D'backs, Cubs, and Brewers, battling for four playoff spots with the possibility of a five way time looming on the final day of the season and a dozen tiebreaker scenarios, which you can find here.
In the NL west, the D'backs close the season against the red hot Colorado Rockies. If the Rockies manage to sweep they will be NL west champs, and if they win two of three they would have a strong chance at the NL Wildcard. The probable pitchers are Cy Young contender Jeff Francis for Colorado going against reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb for Arizona in game one of the series, game two pits Edgar Gonzalez for the D'Backs against Mark Redman for the Rox, and the final game of the series, and season, has Doug Davis going against highly touted rookie Ubaldo Jimenez.
The Padres close out against the Brewers, a series which could have huge ramifications for both, in Milwaukee. The Brewers have to win out and hope for a total collapse from the Cubs to win the Central, which given the Cubs history of blowing leads and losing isn't impossible. The Padres could be in big trouble right now, because one loss in this series could cost them a postseason berth with the Rockies, Mets, and Phillies nipping at their heels in the wildcard.
In the NL East
The NL east is just as interesting. The Phillies close against the Nationals and the Mets finish against the Marlins. The Nationals have been a lot better than expected, but they still aren't very good and shouldn't prove much of a threat to the charging Phillies, even though they did hand it to the Mets and possibly cost them a division title.
The Mets close out against the even worse Marlins, the Mets have stumbled badly lately though and are on the cusp of a historic collapse. The probable pitchers for the Phillies series are Cole Hamels vs. Tim Redding, Matt Chico vs. Adam Eaton, and Jason Bergmann vs. Jaime Moyer. In the Mets series the probables are Oliver Perez vs. B.H. Kim, Chris Seddon vs. John Maine, and Dontrelle Willis vs. Tom Glavine. The pitching matchups definitely favor the Mets, but the Phillies are too hot to go against right now.
In the AL
It is still worth playing it out in the AL too, however. The Indians and Red Sox are in a dead heat for the best record in the AL and the right to choose their first round playoff format and the right to play each other in the first round. It makes sense for the Red Sox to try and get the best record in the AL outside of that though, if they finish with the best record they would in all likelihood play the Indians instead of the Angels in the first round, a team they have struggled against in the past.
My Picks
My picks are Phillies in the NL East, Cubs in the NL Central, Rockies in the NL West, and Padres for the NL Wildcard. The Phillies and Rockies are too hot for me to pick against right now, and the Cubs might as well have that division already. Winning the division for the Rockies would require a sweep of the D'backs, which would likely result in the D'Backs not making it in, so thats why the Padres win the wildcard.
Keep in mind that the Rockies, D'Backs, Padres, Mets, and Phillies all still have a shot at the best record in the NL, The Braves are still mathematically in it, as are the Brewers, and the Yankees could still win the division. This could prove to be the most exciting final weekend of baseball in the past 50 years.
Had a problem
I created a blog earlier tonight, but I lost my internet connection and I didn't realize I was supposed to register using a google account, and I couldn't retrieve my account.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
