Now that the Yankees season is officially over it seems like a good time to finally talk about A-Rod and what may happen with him this offseason.
Going into the post season I thought there was a decent chance that he would stay if he had a good post season and the Yankees played deep into the playoffs, making it at least to the ALCS or playing in the World series, but I think that goes out the window now. Fresh off another disappointing personal post season and another first round exit for the Yankees I don't think theres a chance in hell he'll play a game in a Yankees uniform next season.
Before this season I must admit I never bought into the players playing better in a contract year hype, but A-Rod definitely made me question that this season. A-Rod is coming off the best regular season in recent memory, he ranked at or near the top in nearly every offensive stat category there is, that hasn't been tainted with speculated steroid use, coming on the heels of a very disappointing '06 season, both offensively and defensively. His agent, Scott Boras, thinks that he can get A-Rod a 30+ mil per year contract and I wouldn't doubt it, especially with the monster season by A-Rod and the fact that Boras is the best agent in baseball.
There are going to be two factors with A-Rod that are going to disqualify about 90% of the teams in the league, however, and those are the fact that he will demand a 28-35 million a year contract, and the Boras factor. A lot of teams refuse to negotiate on big name free agents, or at all, with Boras because of the way he handles negotiations and there aren't many teams that can afford a salary like that. Most of the teams that can afford a contract like that will deal with Boras but its definitely something to be considered.
The teams that could afford him would be the Angels, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Giants, Cubs and the Tigers. However, the Mets are locked in at 3B and SS for the distant future with Wright and Reyes, the Tigers would be an enourmous long shot, but its not totally impossible, the Yankees have repeatedly stated that they won't get into a bidding war on A-Rod because they would lose out on the Rangers still paying a large portion of A-Rod's remaining contract, and the Orioles just don't seem likely.
That leaves the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants as the main contenders for A-Rod's services. The Red Sox may well have a hole at 3B if they decide to let Lowell go to free agency, and the Dodgers and Angels desperately need a power bat, the Angels have Vlad but an A-Rod acquisition would give him protection, but the Dodgers have no true immediate power threat in their lineup. The Cubs are set at 3B with Aramis Ramirez, but a return to SS would be a good option since Theriot is best suited as a back up. I think the Red Sox are going to resign Lowell so I don't see him going to the Red Sox, and Arte Moreno has repeatedly stated that they won't make a huge push for A-Rod this offseason because although they could afford it he would find it disrespectful to Vlad to pay A-Rod so much money. I don't see it happening with the Giants because he would be playing in the same park that the current all-time homerun leader played so long and A-Rod is going to make an eventual push at that record and I think he'll take that into consideration when making his decisions and discount them.
That would leave the Dodgers and Cubs as the two most likely suitors of A-Rod. Piniella is a father figure to A-Rod so I could see that as a real distinct possibility, and they have the cash to do it, however, I think he ends up a Dodger. The Cubs do have the cash to make a push for him, but I don't think they have enough to compete with the Dodgers. The Dodgers have both the need at 3B and the need for a true power bat along with the cash to make a huge push for A-Rod. A-Rod would give the Dodgers a ton of revenue and reclaim some fans from the Angels and would make them an almost immediate favorite for the NL Pennant and NL West next year and immediately re-energize the lineup.
Look for A-Rod to be playing '08 in a Dodgers uniform in Chavez Ravine.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Tigers exercise option on Pudge
This was a pretty easy decision.
For a time there were reports circulating that the Tigers were not going to pick up Pudge's option and instead opt to buy him out, that seemed highly unlikely though.
Pudge would've been the best FA catcher on the market this offseason by a wide margin and the Tigers have no decent viable in house options so this was a slam dunk move. Hes done wonders with guys like Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson, and just about anyone else thats stepped on the mound for the Tigers since hes been there and has seemed to be a clubhouse leader so letting go of him would've cost the Tigers a lot more than a few million dollars in buyout.
Now it appears the best catchers on the market will be Yorvit Torrealba, Ramon Castro, and Paul Lo Duca.
For a time there were reports circulating that the Tigers were not going to pick up Pudge's option and instead opt to buy him out, that seemed highly unlikely though.
Pudge would've been the best FA catcher on the market this offseason by a wide margin and the Tigers have no decent viable in house options so this was a slam dunk move. Hes done wonders with guys like Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson, and just about anyone else thats stepped on the mound for the Tigers since hes been there and has seemed to be a clubhouse leader so letting go of him would've cost the Tigers a lot more than a few million dollars in buyout.
Now it appears the best catchers on the market will be Yorvit Torrealba, Ramon Castro, and Paul Lo Duca.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Glavine Update
I detailed a few posts below that Glavine has declined his player option and has decided to test free agency or retire. I said that I thought he would return and latch on with the Braves to contend, or the Nationals to teach.
Well, we have a little update on that. It is being reported by some sources that he would take less money to return home and pitch with the Braves. Glavine at a discount is still going to cost a pretty penny, and the Braves have more pressing needs in CF and trying to find a way to fit Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and Yunel Escobar in the same lineup. Of course, a scenario that could work would be trading Renteria, he would be in high demand with the poor SS market this offseason, and sticking the younger, cheaper Yunel at SS and Johnson at 2B, which would free up the cash for them to go after Glavine and a second tier CF like Mike Cameron.
Well, we have a little update on that. It is being reported by some sources that he would take less money to return home and pitch with the Braves. Glavine at a discount is still going to cost a pretty penny, and the Braves have more pressing needs in CF and trying to find a way to fit Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and Yunel Escobar in the same lineup. Of course, a scenario that could work would be trading Renteria, he would be in high demand with the poor SS market this offseason, and sticking the younger, cheaper Yunel at SS and Johnson at 2B, which would free up the cash for them to go after Glavine and a second tier CF like Mike Cameron.
Friday, October 5, 2007
NL Playoff picks
I know these are already underway but I'm doing it anyways.
Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies in 4
Two very hot teams going in. Both have very good offensive clubs and hitter friendly parks, the difference is that the Rockies pitching is a lot better. After Hamels the Phillies don't have much in the rotation, and even less in the 'pen, the Rockies are very solid in both those departments, which will put them over the top in this series.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks - D'Backs in 5
The Diamondbacks are an intriguing team to say the least. They outperformed their Pythagorean record by several games and were outscored by there opponents, not something that normally leads to the best record in the NL. That being said, I still think they're better than the Cubs.
Rockies vs. D'backs - Rockies in 7
This is more a hope than anything else. The Rockies are incredibly hot and are bound to cool off at some point, I just don't think its here. They are equal, for the most part, in the rotation and bullpen. The Rockies had the best defense in baseball, while Arizona had the 21st, and the Rockies were 5th in runs in MLB, whereas Arizona finished 26th. The Rockies will be the hotter team going in and the better, which is why I think they will advance to the WS against my AL pick, the Red Sox.
Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies in 4
Two very hot teams going in. Both have very good offensive clubs and hitter friendly parks, the difference is that the Rockies pitching is a lot better. After Hamels the Phillies don't have much in the rotation, and even less in the 'pen, the Rockies are very solid in both those departments, which will put them over the top in this series.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks - D'Backs in 5
The Diamondbacks are an intriguing team to say the least. They outperformed their Pythagorean record by several games and were outscored by there opponents, not something that normally leads to the best record in the NL. That being said, I still think they're better than the Cubs.
Rockies vs. D'backs - Rockies in 7
This is more a hope than anything else. The Rockies are incredibly hot and are bound to cool off at some point, I just don't think its here. They are equal, for the most part, in the rotation and bullpen. The Rockies had the best defense in baseball, while Arizona had the 21st, and the Rockies were 5th in runs in MLB, whereas Arizona finished 26th. The Rockies will be the hotter team going in and the better, which is why I think they will advance to the WS against my AL pick, the Red Sox.
Glavine decline player option
Just so whoever happens to read this knows, I'm not doing those playoff things for the NL, I was going to but the playoffs have started and I don't see the point of it at this point, but I will do my NL picks later.
Anyways, Tom Glavine has decided to decline his 13 million player option and go for Free Agency. I find this kind of puzzling for a few reasons, one being that theres no way he'll get more than 13 mil on the open market no matter how good his agent is, second being that this could either mean the end of his career or a return to Atlanta. A team like the Nationals or D'Rays or Royals could also look to sign him to mentor their young starters and teach them the ropes and teach them how to pitch without a 95 MPH heater.
The Mets are hoping they can resign him on the open market, but it is clear, to me at least and probably them, that if he wanted to stay in New York that he would've simply exercised his option, which means that the chances of him returning to pitch as a Met are very slim.
I would say that there is also a fair chance that he retires and goes into the Hall of Fame in five years.
My feeling, however, is that he will return to wash the taste of the Mets collapse out of his mouth with a team near the east coast. I'd say his most likely destinations, should be return, would be Atlanta, Washington, Tampa Bay with the Mets being a long shot. He would serve as a mentor in Washington or Tampa, with possibly having a chance to contend in Tampa depending on how things go, but in Atlanta he would have a chance to win another ring.
No matter what he does he is a great pitcher and a surefire, first ballot Hall of Famer.
Anyways, Tom Glavine has decided to decline his 13 million player option and go for Free Agency. I find this kind of puzzling for a few reasons, one being that theres no way he'll get more than 13 mil on the open market no matter how good his agent is, second being that this could either mean the end of his career or a return to Atlanta. A team like the Nationals or D'Rays or Royals could also look to sign him to mentor their young starters and teach them the ropes and teach them how to pitch without a 95 MPH heater.
The Mets are hoping they can resign him on the open market, but it is clear, to me at least and probably them, that if he wanted to stay in New York that he would've simply exercised his option, which means that the chances of him returning to pitch as a Met are very slim.
I would say that there is also a fair chance that he retires and goes into the Hall of Fame in five years.
My feeling, however, is that he will return to wash the taste of the Mets collapse out of his mouth with a team near the east coast. I'd say his most likely destinations, should be return, would be Atlanta, Washington, Tampa Bay with the Mets being a long shot. He would serve as a mentor in Washington or Tampa, with possibly having a chance to contend in Tampa depending on how things go, but in Atlanta he would have a chance to win another ring.
No matter what he does he is a great pitcher and a surefire, first ballot Hall of Famer.
Monday, October 1, 2007
AL Playoff picks
ALDS Series 1:
Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox in 4
Red Sox will have Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling going, which isn't too much worse than what LA will be throwing out there and the Red Sox have a huge edge in offense which I think will put them over the top.
ALDS Series 2:
Indians vs. Yankees - Indians in 3
Indians have the far better pitching and the offense isn't too much worse than that of the Yankees. Pitching wins in the playoffs and the Indians are far better in that regard so thats what puts them over the top for me.
ALCS:
Red Sox vs. Indians - Red Sox in 6
This is really a tossup as both of these teams are nearly identical in almost all regards, my personal bias pushes me towards the Red Sox because of that. There will definitely be some great pitching duels, and probably some slugfests too, its just too close to call so I'm going with who I HOPE will win.
NL Playoff team breakdowns and predictions next.
Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox in 4
Red Sox will have Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling going, which isn't too much worse than what LA will be throwing out there and the Red Sox have a huge edge in offense which I think will put them over the top.
ALDS Series 2:
Indians vs. Yankees - Indians in 3
Indians have the far better pitching and the offense isn't too much worse than that of the Yankees. Pitching wins in the playoffs and the Indians are far better in that regard so thats what puts them over the top for me.
ALCS:
Red Sox vs. Indians - Red Sox in 6
This is really a tossup as both of these teams are nearly identical in almost all regards, my personal bias pushes me towards the Red Sox because of that. There will definitely be some great pitching duels, and probably some slugfests too, its just too close to call so I'm going with who I HOPE will win.
NL Playoff team breakdowns and predictions next.
No Clear Team to Beat in AL - Yankees
Yankees:
Strengths - Offense, closer and setup, front end of rotation, defense
Weaknesses - Middle relief, starting pitching
Neutral - Bench
Offense - This is clearly the defining attribute of this Yankee team. There isn't even really a bad thing to say about it. They have the likely unanimous AL MVP in Alex Rodriguez and his inhuman numbers, Jeter has had another good season at the plate, Giambi is having another good season, Cano is good as always, Damon is having another solid season, Posada is having one of the best seasons of his career, and Abreu has come on well since starting very slowly. There is virtually no hole in the lineup. The one arguement you could make against the offense is that they don't have a lot of speed, but Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, and Melky are all capable of stealing a base if they need to. They grind out at bats, they don't strike out a whole lot, they hit for good average and power and have decent enough speed to get by. This is definitely what will carry them in the postseason.
Defense - They finished 7th in baseball this season in fielding percentage. A-Rod has apparently been cleansed of the defensive woes that plagued him last season and all their OF's have average or above range. Jeter is a solid shortstop, though he is vastly overrated defensively by a lot of people but I'm not getting into that, and Cano is also very solid. Posada calls a good game and is capable of throwing out most baserunners. Depending on who they DH 1B could be a problem if they decide to run Giambi out there night in and night out it could cost them some runs, but they have the offense to make up for it. Same as the others, this shouldn't hurt them a whole lot.
Pitching - This is very clearly the downfall of this Yankee team. After Pettitte and Wang they have basically no rotation. Clemens is unreliable at his age and its all rookies after that and starting rookies in playoff games, especially on the road in a place like Boston, Cleveland or LA, the crowd and pressure will probably really get to them and affect them a lot. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera are a great 1-2 punch at the back of the BP, but the problem is getting to them with a lead. Farnsworth has been completely awful this season and has proven he isn't suited to anything better than mop up duty in a place like New York, Vizcaino has been as unreliable as Farnsworth. The only other reliever that you may be able to count on is Bruney, especially after they traded Proctor away at the deadline. This is definitely going to be what will hold the Yankees back in the playoffs. Pitching wins in the playoffs and they don't have a lot of it, I think this will definitely cost them a few wins, and probably winning or losing a series.
Overall - The offense is capable of putting 7 runs on the board on any given night, but the pitching is so bad that they could just as easily give up 10. I don't think they will make it very far because of how poor the pitching is.
AL playoff picks then I'll do the same thing for the NL, after this Colorado game so I know who to do it on.
Strengths - Offense, closer and setup, front end of rotation, defense
Weaknesses - Middle relief, starting pitching
Neutral - Bench
Offense - This is clearly the defining attribute of this Yankee team. There isn't even really a bad thing to say about it. They have the likely unanimous AL MVP in Alex Rodriguez and his inhuman numbers, Jeter has had another good season at the plate, Giambi is having another good season, Cano is good as always, Damon is having another solid season, Posada is having one of the best seasons of his career, and Abreu has come on well since starting very slowly. There is virtually no hole in the lineup. The one arguement you could make against the offense is that they don't have a lot of speed, but Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, and Melky are all capable of stealing a base if they need to. They grind out at bats, they don't strike out a whole lot, they hit for good average and power and have decent enough speed to get by. This is definitely what will carry them in the postseason.
Defense - They finished 7th in baseball this season in fielding percentage. A-Rod has apparently been cleansed of the defensive woes that plagued him last season and all their OF's have average or above range. Jeter is a solid shortstop, though he is vastly overrated defensively by a lot of people but I'm not getting into that, and Cano is also very solid. Posada calls a good game and is capable of throwing out most baserunners. Depending on who they DH 1B could be a problem if they decide to run Giambi out there night in and night out it could cost them some runs, but they have the offense to make up for it. Same as the others, this shouldn't hurt them a whole lot.
Pitching - This is very clearly the downfall of this Yankee team. After Pettitte and Wang they have basically no rotation. Clemens is unreliable at his age and its all rookies after that and starting rookies in playoff games, especially on the road in a place like Boston, Cleveland or LA, the crowd and pressure will probably really get to them and affect them a lot. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera are a great 1-2 punch at the back of the BP, but the problem is getting to them with a lead. Farnsworth has been completely awful this season and has proven he isn't suited to anything better than mop up duty in a place like New York, Vizcaino has been as unreliable as Farnsworth. The only other reliever that you may be able to count on is Bruney, especially after they traded Proctor away at the deadline. This is definitely going to be what will hold the Yankees back in the playoffs. Pitching wins in the playoffs and they don't have a lot of it, I think this will definitely cost them a few wins, and probably winning or losing a series.
Overall - The offense is capable of putting 7 runs on the board on any given night, but the pitching is so bad that they could just as easily give up 10. I don't think they will make it very far because of how poor the pitching is.
AL playoff picks then I'll do the same thing for the NL, after this Colorado game so I know who to do it on.
No Clear Team to Beat in AL - Angels
Angels:
Strengths - Speed, starting pitching, closer, contact hitting
Weaknesses - The lack of a power bat behind Vlad, lack of BB's
Neutral - Defense, middle relief and setup
Offense - The Angels have been a very good offensive club this year. They were in the top 10 in the AL in runs (822), batting average (.284), on base percent (.354), and stolen bases (139). However, they finished in the bottom half of the league in slugging (.417), walks (507). They are ripe with good contact hitters like Vlad, Figgins, Cabrera, Kendrick, Izturis, Kotchman. However, they have virtually no power threat after Vlad, the next closest player to Vlad's .547 slugging percent was Garrett Anderson's .492, but he still isn't the type of power threat they need and isn't the type of guy that scares pitchers to a great degree anymore, and no other regular posted a slugging percent higher than .467. The lack of power could definitely hurt them in a close game, but the batting average and speed partially make up for it, since you can turn a single into a double with a stolen base. Overall, I think the offense may be a weak spot for them in the playoffs since they will be drawing very, very good pitchers each time out and they don't have anyone besides Vlad that you can expect to tie or win a game with one swing of the bat.
Defense - The Angels didn't play their characteristically good defense this season, finishing 19th in the MLB in fielding percent, they still have very some good defensive players though, not the least of which are Casey Kotchman, Gary Matthews Jr., Orlando Cabrera, and Reggie Willits. Vlad isn't a great outfielder anymore, he had nine errors in the OF this year which I think is simply unacceptable from an outfielder, hes lost a step of his range, he doesn't have the arm he used to, though it is still quite good and better than most, and isn't really the overall fielder he once was, but I wouldn't expect him to hurt them much defensively since I think he will DH quite a bit this post season, with Rivera, Willits, Anderson, and Matthews all getting time in the OF. The defense may hurt them this postseason because a large amount of the errors came at two of the most important defensive positions on the field, shortstop and third base, but they have the pitching to make up for most of it I think, I wouldn't expect it to hurt them more than any other team, I wouldn't be surprised if it did though.
Pitching - This should definitely not hurt the Angels this postseason. They have two pitchers that have had Cy Young type years in Lackey and Escobar, you could even throw K-Rod in there if you wanted, along with a solid season from Weaver and a good season out of the bullpen from Justin Speier. However, they do have a few flaws, besides K-Rod and Speier the bullpen has not been as reliable this season, and the Santana and Colon both struggled this season starting which leaves them with a slight hole there. Sheilds should be able to pick it up in the post season though. How good the Angels do these playoffs will likely depend on how well they pitch, which should be very well.
Overall - The offense is the only thing I can see hurting the Angels a lot, due to the reasons I detailed before, and the pitching will carry them as far as they go. They do not have a good history against Boston in the playoffs and Boston has a much better offense and roughly equally as good pitching. I don't think they beat the Red Sox, but they will definitely give them a run for there money.
Yankees up next.
Strengths - Speed, starting pitching, closer, contact hitting
Weaknesses - The lack of a power bat behind Vlad, lack of BB's
Neutral - Defense, middle relief and setup
Offense - The Angels have been a very good offensive club this year. They were in the top 10 in the AL in runs (822), batting average (.284), on base percent (.354), and stolen bases (139). However, they finished in the bottom half of the league in slugging (.417), walks (507). They are ripe with good contact hitters like Vlad, Figgins, Cabrera, Kendrick, Izturis, Kotchman. However, they have virtually no power threat after Vlad, the next closest player to Vlad's .547 slugging percent was Garrett Anderson's .492, but he still isn't the type of power threat they need and isn't the type of guy that scares pitchers to a great degree anymore, and no other regular posted a slugging percent higher than .467. The lack of power could definitely hurt them in a close game, but the batting average and speed partially make up for it, since you can turn a single into a double with a stolen base. Overall, I think the offense may be a weak spot for them in the playoffs since they will be drawing very, very good pitchers each time out and they don't have anyone besides Vlad that you can expect to tie or win a game with one swing of the bat.
Defense - The Angels didn't play their characteristically good defense this season, finishing 19th in the MLB in fielding percent, they still have very some good defensive players though, not the least of which are Casey Kotchman, Gary Matthews Jr., Orlando Cabrera, and Reggie Willits. Vlad isn't a great outfielder anymore, he had nine errors in the OF this year which I think is simply unacceptable from an outfielder, hes lost a step of his range, he doesn't have the arm he used to, though it is still quite good and better than most, and isn't really the overall fielder he once was, but I wouldn't expect him to hurt them much defensively since I think he will DH quite a bit this post season, with Rivera, Willits, Anderson, and Matthews all getting time in the OF. The defense may hurt them this postseason because a large amount of the errors came at two of the most important defensive positions on the field, shortstop and third base, but they have the pitching to make up for most of it I think, I wouldn't expect it to hurt them more than any other team, I wouldn't be surprised if it did though.
Pitching - This should definitely not hurt the Angels this postseason. They have two pitchers that have had Cy Young type years in Lackey and Escobar, you could even throw K-Rod in there if you wanted, along with a solid season from Weaver and a good season out of the bullpen from Justin Speier. However, they do have a few flaws, besides K-Rod and Speier the bullpen has not been as reliable this season, and the Santana and Colon both struggled this season starting which leaves them with a slight hole there. Sheilds should be able to pick it up in the post season though. How good the Angels do these playoffs will likely depend on how well they pitch, which should be very well.
Overall - The offense is the only thing I can see hurting the Angels a lot, due to the reasons I detailed before, and the pitching will carry them as far as they go. They do not have a good history against Boston in the playoffs and Boston has a much better offense and roughly equally as good pitching. I don't think they beat the Red Sox, but they will definitely give them a run for there money.
Yankees up next.
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