A-Rod

Now that the Yankees season is officially over it seems like a good time to finally talk about A-Rod and what may happen with him this offseason.

Going into the post season I thought there was a decent chance that he would stay if he had a good post season and the Yankees played deep into the playoffs, making it at least to the ALCS or playing in the World series, but I think that goes out the window now. Fresh off another disappointing personal post season and another first round exit for the Yankees I don't think theres a chance in hell he'll play a game in a Yankees uniform next season.

Before this season I must admit I never bought into the players playing better in a contract year hype, but A-Rod definitely made me question that this season. A-Rod is coming off the best regular season in recent memory, he ranked at or near the top in nearly every offensive stat category there is, that hasn't been tainted with speculated steroid use, coming on the heels of a very disappointing '06 season, both offensively and defensively. His agent, Scott Boras, thinks that he can get A-Rod a 30+ mil per year contract and I wouldn't doubt it, especially with the monster season by A-Rod and the fact that Boras is the best agent in baseball.

There are going to be two factors with A-Rod that are going to disqualify about 90% of the teams in the league, however, and those are the fact that he will demand a 28-35 million a year contract, and the Boras factor. A lot of teams refuse to negotiate on big name free agents, or at all, with Boras because of the way he handles negotiations and there aren't many teams that can afford a salary like that. Most of the teams that can afford a contract like that will deal with Boras but its definitely something to be considered.

The teams that could afford him would be the Angels, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Giants, Cubs and the Tigers. However, the Mets are locked in at 3B and SS for the distant future with Wright and Reyes, the Tigers would be an enourmous long shot, but its not totally impossible, the Yankees have repeatedly stated that they won't get into a bidding war on A-Rod because they would lose out on the Rangers still paying a large portion of A-Rod's remaining contract, and the Orioles just don't seem likely.

That leaves the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants as the main contenders for A-Rod's services. The Red Sox may well have a hole at 3B if they decide to let Lowell go to free agency, and the Dodgers and Angels desperately need a power bat, the Angels have Vlad but an A-Rod acquisition would give him protection, but the Dodgers have no true immediate power threat in their lineup. The Cubs are set at 3B with Aramis Ramirez, but a return to SS would be a good option since Theriot is best suited as a back up. I think the Red Sox are going to resign Lowell so I don't see him going to the Red Sox, and Arte Moreno has repeatedly stated that they won't make a huge push for A-Rod this offseason because although they could afford it he would find it disrespectful to Vlad to pay A-Rod so much money. I don't see it happening with the Giants because he would be playing in the same park that the current all-time homerun leader played so long and A-Rod is going to make an eventual push at that record and I think he'll take that into consideration when making his decisions and discount them.

That would leave the Dodgers and Cubs as the two most likely suitors of A-Rod. Piniella is a father figure to A-Rod so I could see that as a real distinct possibility, and they have the cash to do it, however, I think he ends up a Dodger. The Cubs do have the cash to make a push for him, but I don't think they have enough to compete with the Dodgers. The Dodgers have both the need at 3B and the need for a true power bat along with the cash to make a huge push for A-Rod. A-Rod would give the Dodgers a ton of revenue and reclaim some fans from the Angels and would make them an almost immediate favorite for the NL Pennant and NL West next year and immediately re-energize the lineup.

Look for A-Rod to be playing '08 in a Dodgers uniform in Chavez Ravine.