Indians:
Strengths - Lineup, front end of the rotation, defense, set up
Weaknesses - Shaky bullpen, strikeout a lot
Neutral - Middle relief, closer
Offense - The Indians are a very strong offensive team, ranking 9th in MLB in runs scored this season. They hit for a solid, though not great, average, they hit for excellent power and are capable of stealing a base when they need to. Victor Martinez, Hafner, and Grady are the anchors of the lineup. Victor had one of the best seasons of his career this year, and while Hafner and Grady both had down years they should still be feared. Garko has also had a very strong year, the only real holes on the line up are Josh Barfield, but he has been supplanted by Asdrubal Cabrera, and the platoon of Trot Nixon, Jason Michaels, and Franklin Guttierez. The offense certainly shouldn't hurt them this off season. Their only real source of speed is Sizemore, but I don't think that should hurt them too much.
Defense - The Indians are a very solid defensive team. They have a few Gold Glove caliber players, including Grady Sizemore and Ryan Garko, along with getting solid defense from players like Blake, Barfield, and Peralta. I don't think will help, nor hurt the Indians a whole lot this postseason.
Pitching - The Indians have two 19 game winners in Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, which says a lot in itself, but the pitching is slightly questionable after that. Cliff Lee has been terrible this season, after winning 18 games not too long ago, Paul Byrd is a cagey veteran and is battle tested in the playoffs, but he is getting up there in age and has almost nothing left on his fastball. Westbrook is probably the one other guy I would rely on, he is still pretty young and doesn't have to rely solely on his fastball or sinker. The bullpen is a huge weak spot though. Borowski has been a disaster this season, with an ERA over 5.00 as a closer and allowing over half as many runs as Carmona in over 100 less IP, and is probably on a very short leash in the playoffs. Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez have both been very good this season, both with sub 2.00 ERA's, and if Borowski blows a save or costs the Indians a game once they may get the call to close. They are the only two reliable bullpen arms, however, as almost all the others post ERA's over 4.00.
Overall - The Indians area very well rounded team and may very well advance to the WS. Their only glaring hole is at closer, which could be easily fixed by putting Betancourt or Perez at closer, otherwise they are set without any big holes. I'm expecting them to advance past the Yankees to the ALCS (hopefully) against the Red Sox.
Angels next.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
No Clear Team to Beat in AL - Red Sox
This year the AL playoff pennant is wide open, there is no clear cut "team to beat". Every team has their strengths that could win it for them, and their flaws that could cost them everything, with the Red Sox its injuries and the bullpen tailing off, the Indians have an unreliable closer in Joe Borowski, the Angels don't have a real power threat behind Guerrero and Sheilds hasn't been his normal self, and the Yankees don't have the starting pitching to win in a short series. I'm going to take a little bit more in depth look and analyze each AL playoff teams strengths and weaknesses.
Red Sox:
Strengths - Lineup (for the most part), starting pitching, closer and setup, defense
Weaknesses - Injuries, middle relief, lack of good bench bat
Neutral - Bench
Offense - When healthy, the offense is very strong from top to bottom and is very balanced with a good mix of speed, power, and average. Lowell and Pedroia have had amazing years, with strong years from Ortiz, Crisp, and Youk and a good month of filling in from Ellsbury. However, Drew has struggle badly this year, though he has been very, very good this month, with a very mediocre line of .270/.373/.423 with only 11 home runs. They have also been hit with injuries to important hitters like Youk and Manny, Manny has come back pretty strong, but Youk still hasn't played consistently since the injury happened. In the end, I don't think the offense will be a problem in the postseason, especially with Drew and Ortiz having good final months to the season and Lowell having the best year of his career, this will be a strong suit for them during the postseason.
Defense - The Red Sox have been extremely good defensively this year. Pedroia and Crisp are both Gold Glove deserving, along with past winner Mike Lowell manning the hot corner and Youkilis still hasn't made an error this season at 1B. Crisp has caught everything hit near him this season and Drew is an above average fielder with a hose in right, Manny plays the Monster well but can be lackadaisical at time and doesn't play very good defense outside of Fenway. Lugo has had an unusually good year defensively, by his standard, and Pedroia has established himself as one of the best defensive second basemen in the AL. Lowell hasn't been himself defensively this year, but there is no reason to think that hes gonna suddenly turn into Steve Sax, and as I said before Youk still has yet to make an error this season. 'Tek will call a great game as always and throws out a decent percent of base runners. There are also good replacements on the bench, with Ellsbury, Cora, and Kielty all being strong defenders. The defense shouldn't cost them too much, but we all remember Buckner too.
Pitching - The starting pitching has been very good all season with Cy Young contender Josh Beckett, playoff tested Curt Schilling, knuckle baller Tim Wakefield, lefty Jon Lester and Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka all having strong seasons. The playoff rotation in the first round is almost certainly going to be Josh Beckett going games 1 and 4 or 5, Schilling going games 2 and 4 or 5, and Dice-K going game 3, which bodes well for the Red Sox. The bullpen was very good early in the season, with great seasons from Papelbon and Okajima along with the emergence of Delcarmen, but it started to fall apart once Gagne got here and suddenly lost his ability to get guys out. Gagne has been better lately, but Okajima is still shutdown with a deadarm and wasn't doing well even before it was thought he might have an injury. I would expect Okajima to return and be good, though probably not the sub 1.00 ERA guy, Papelbon should continue to be great, though it will be interesting to see how Delcarmen reacts in the playoffs and how Lester performs out of the bullpen. I wouldn't expect the Red Sox to blow any huge leads this postseason and that the bullpen will be very, very solid.
Overall - I think the Red Sox are one of the stronger teams in the AL playoffs this year and if there is a team to beat they definitely may be it. Expect them to put up a strong fight all postseason and probably advance very deep into the playoffs.
Next up will be the Indians later tonight or tomorrow.
Red Sox:
Strengths - Lineup (for the most part), starting pitching, closer and setup, defense
Weaknesses - Injuries, middle relief, lack of good bench bat
Neutral - Bench
Offense - When healthy, the offense is very strong from top to bottom and is very balanced with a good mix of speed, power, and average. Lowell and Pedroia have had amazing years, with strong years from Ortiz, Crisp, and Youk and a good month of filling in from Ellsbury. However, Drew has struggle badly this year, though he has been very, very good this month, with a very mediocre line of .270/.373/.423 with only 11 home runs. They have also been hit with injuries to important hitters like Youk and Manny, Manny has come back pretty strong, but Youk still hasn't played consistently since the injury happened. In the end, I don't think the offense will be a problem in the postseason, especially with Drew and Ortiz having good final months to the season and Lowell having the best year of his career, this will be a strong suit for them during the postseason.
Defense - The Red Sox have been extremely good defensively this year. Pedroia and Crisp are both Gold Glove deserving, along with past winner Mike Lowell manning the hot corner and Youkilis still hasn't made an error this season at 1B. Crisp has caught everything hit near him this season and Drew is an above average fielder with a hose in right, Manny plays the Monster well but can be lackadaisical at time and doesn't play very good defense outside of Fenway. Lugo has had an unusually good year defensively, by his standard, and Pedroia has established himself as one of the best defensive second basemen in the AL. Lowell hasn't been himself defensively this year, but there is no reason to think that hes gonna suddenly turn into Steve Sax, and as I said before Youk still has yet to make an error this season. 'Tek will call a great game as always and throws out a decent percent of base runners. There are also good replacements on the bench, with Ellsbury, Cora, and Kielty all being strong defenders. The defense shouldn't cost them too much, but we all remember Buckner too.
Pitching - The starting pitching has been very good all season with Cy Young contender Josh Beckett, playoff tested Curt Schilling, knuckle baller Tim Wakefield, lefty Jon Lester and Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka all having strong seasons. The playoff rotation in the first round is almost certainly going to be Josh Beckett going games 1 and 4 or 5, Schilling going games 2 and 4 or 5, and Dice-K going game 3, which bodes well for the Red Sox. The bullpen was very good early in the season, with great seasons from Papelbon and Okajima along with the emergence of Delcarmen, but it started to fall apart once Gagne got here and suddenly lost his ability to get guys out. Gagne has been better lately, but Okajima is still shutdown with a deadarm and wasn't doing well even before it was thought he might have an injury. I would expect Okajima to return and be good, though probably not the sub 1.00 ERA guy, Papelbon should continue to be great, though it will be interesting to see how Delcarmen reacts in the playoffs and how Lester performs out of the bullpen. I wouldn't expect the Red Sox to blow any huge leads this postseason and that the bullpen will be very, very solid.
Overall - I think the Red Sox are one of the stronger teams in the AL playoffs this year and if there is a team to beat they definitely may be it. Expect them to put up a strong fight all postseason and probably advance very deep into the playoffs.
Next up will be the Indians later tonight or tomorrow.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Red Sox clinch AL East!
The Red Sox win over Minnesota, coupled with the Yankees meltdown in Baltimore,
clinched the Red Sox their first Eastern Division title in 12 years.
The Red Sox game was fairly close throughout most of the game, the Red Sox never surrendered the lead after gaining it however. They scored early, with two in the first and one in the third, with one more each coming in the 6th and 8th innings, with a homer coming off the bat of Ortiz. The Twins got their only two runs in the 7th inning off a homer from Morneau and an RBI from Brian Buscher.
The Yankee game was almost the complete opposite however. The Yankees were up 7-2 going into the bottom of the 4th inning, when Baltimore rallied to score four runs to make it 7-6 Yankees. The Yankees would score one each in the 6th and 8th. But then it all came unraveled in the bottom of the 9th; with the Yankees leading 9-6 the Orioles scored three runs off of Mariano Rivera to tie it at 9 a piece and then won it with a walk off squeeze with the bases loaded my Melvin Mora in the 10th.
With the way these two games all unfolded, in favor of the Red Sox, it could be a good omen and a sign of things to come for the Red Sox.
clinched the Red Sox their first Eastern Division title in 12 years.
The Red Sox game was fairly close throughout most of the game, the Red Sox never surrendered the lead after gaining it however. They scored early, with two in the first and one in the third, with one more each coming in the 6th and 8th innings, with a homer coming off the bat of Ortiz. The Twins got their only two runs in the 7th inning off a homer from Morneau and an RBI from Brian Buscher.
The Yankee game was almost the complete opposite however. The Yankees were up 7-2 going into the bottom of the 4th inning, when Baltimore rallied to score four runs to make it 7-6 Yankees. The Yankees would score one each in the 6th and 8th. But then it all came unraveled in the bottom of the 9th; with the Yankees leading 9-6 the Orioles scored three runs off of Mariano Rivera to tie it at 9 a piece and then won it with a walk off squeeze with the bases loaded my Melvin Mora in the 10th.
With the way these two games all unfolded, in favor of the Red Sox, it could be a good omen and a sign of things to come for the Red Sox.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Great end of season races
This last weekend of baseball could prove to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. In the AL you have the Red Sox and Indians battling for the best record and the right to choose their first round playoff format and first round opponent. In the NL you have approximately seven teams, the Phillies, Mets, Rockies, Padres, D'backs, Cubs, and Brewers, battling for four playoff spots with the possibility of a five way time looming on the final day of the season and a dozen tiebreaker scenarios, which you can find here.
In the NL west, the D'backs close the season against the red hot Colorado Rockies. If the Rockies manage to sweep they will be NL west champs, and if they win two of three they would have a strong chance at the NL Wildcard. The probable pitchers are Cy Young contender Jeff Francis for Colorado going against reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb for Arizona in game one of the series, game two pits Edgar Gonzalez for the D'Backs against Mark Redman for the Rox, and the final game of the series, and season, has Doug Davis going against highly touted rookie Ubaldo Jimenez.
The Padres close out against the Brewers, a series which could have huge ramifications for both, in Milwaukee. The Brewers have to win out and hope for a total collapse from the Cubs to win the Central, which given the Cubs history of blowing leads and losing isn't impossible. The Padres could be in big trouble right now, because one loss in this series could cost them a postseason berth with the Rockies, Mets, and Phillies nipping at their heels in the wildcard.
In the NL East
The NL east is just as interesting. The Phillies close against the Nationals and the Mets finish against the Marlins. The Nationals have been a lot better than expected, but they still aren't very good and shouldn't prove much of a threat to the charging Phillies, even though they did hand it to the Mets and possibly cost them a division title.
The Mets close out against the even worse Marlins, the Mets have stumbled badly lately though and are on the cusp of a historic collapse. The probable pitchers for the Phillies series are Cole Hamels vs. Tim Redding, Matt Chico vs. Adam Eaton, and Jason Bergmann vs. Jaime Moyer. In the Mets series the probables are Oliver Perez vs. B.H. Kim, Chris Seddon vs. John Maine, and Dontrelle Willis vs. Tom Glavine. The pitching matchups definitely favor the Mets, but the Phillies are too hot to go against right now.
In the AL
It is still worth playing it out in the AL too, however. The Indians and Red Sox are in a dead heat for the best record in the AL and the right to choose their first round playoff format and the right to play each other in the first round. It makes sense for the Red Sox to try and get the best record in the AL outside of that though, if they finish with the best record they would in all likelihood play the Indians instead of the Angels in the first round, a team they have struggled against in the past.
My Picks
My picks are Phillies in the NL East, Cubs in the NL Central, Rockies in the NL West, and Padres for the NL Wildcard. The Phillies and Rockies are too hot for me to pick against right now, and the Cubs might as well have that division already. Winning the division for the Rockies would require a sweep of the D'backs, which would likely result in the D'Backs not making it in, so thats why the Padres win the wildcard.
Keep in mind that the Rockies, D'Backs, Padres, Mets, and Phillies all still have a shot at the best record in the NL, The Braves are still mathematically in it, as are the Brewers, and the Yankees could still win the division. This could prove to be the most exciting final weekend of baseball in the past 50 years.
Had a problem
I created a blog earlier tonight, but I lost my internet connection and I didn't realize I was supposed to register using a google account, and I couldn't retrieve my account.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
