Friday, September 28, 2007

Great end of season races

This last weekend of baseball could prove to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. In the AL you have the Red Sox and Indians battling for the best record and the right to choose their first round playoff format and first round opponent. In the NL you have approximately seven teams, the Phillies, Mets, Rockies, Padres, D'backs, Cubs, and Brewers, battling for four playoff spots with the possibility of a five way time looming on the final day of the season and a dozen tiebreaker scenarios, which you can find here.

In the NL West:

In the NL west, the D'backs close the season against the red hot Colorado Rockies. If the Rockies manage to sweep they will be NL west champs, and if they win two of three they would have a strong chance at the NL Wildcard. The probable pitchers are Cy Young contender Jeff Francis for Colorado going against reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb for Arizona in game one of the series, game two pits Edgar Gonzalez for the D'Backs against Mark Redman for the Rox, and the final game of the series, and season, has Doug Davis going against highly touted rookie Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Padres close out against the Brewers, a series which could have huge ramifications for both, in Milwaukee. The Brewers have to win out and hope for a total collapse from the Cubs to win the Central, which given the Cubs history of blowing leads and losing isn't impossible. The Padres could be in big trouble right now, because one loss in this series could cost them a postseason berth with the Rockies, Mets, and Phillies nipping at their heels in the wildcard.

In the NL East

The NL east is just as interesting. The Phillies close against the Nationals and the Mets finish against the Marlins. The Nationals have been a lot better than expected, but they still aren't very good and shouldn't prove much of a threat to the charging Phillies, even though they did hand it to the Mets and possibly cost them a division title.

The Mets close out against the even worse Marlins, the Mets have stumbled badly lately though and are on the cusp of a historic collapse. The probable pitchers for the Phillies series are Cole Hamels vs. Tim Redding, Matt Chico vs. Adam Eaton, and Jason Bergmann vs. Jaime Moyer. In the Mets series the probables are Oliver Perez vs. B.H. Kim, Chris Seddon vs. John Maine, and Dontrelle Willis vs. Tom Glavine. The pitching matchups definitely favor the Mets, but the Phillies are too hot to go against right now.

In the AL

It is still worth playing it out in the AL too, however. The Indians and Red Sox are in a dead heat for the best record in the AL and the right to choose their first round playoff format and the right to play each other in the first round. It makes sense for the Red Sox to try and get the best record in the AL outside of that though, if they finish with the best record they would in all likelihood play the Indians instead of the Angels in the first round, a team they have struggled against in the past.

My Picks

My picks are Phillies in the NL East, Cubs in the NL Central, Rockies in the NL West, and Padres for the NL Wildcard. The Phillies and Rockies are too hot for me to pick against right now, and the Cubs might as well have that division already. Winning the division for the Rockies would require a sweep of the D'backs, which would likely result in the D'Backs not making it in, so thats why the Padres win the wildcard.

Keep in mind that the Rockies, D'Backs, Padres, Mets, and Phillies all still have a shot at the best record in the NL, The Braves are still mathematically in it, as are the Brewers, and the Yankees could still win the division. This could prove to be the most exciting final weekend of baseball in the past 50 years.

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